A Flight Check Investigation
Spurious Flight Correlations
We analyzed 119M+ BTS flight records across 12 years and 50 airports, then compared monthly patterns to drowning deaths, watermelon shipments, beer production, and lemonade searches. None of these correlations mean anything.
12
suspicious correlations
0.47
avg |r| value
0
causal relationships
Jan 2022 – Nov 2025 · 47 months · Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 50 airports
How to read these charts: Each card shows a real U.S. flight metric (blue or red line, left axis) month by month from Jan 2022 to Nov 2025, plotted against a completely unrelated dataset (colored line, right axis) with its seasonal pattern tiled across the same period. The r value measures how closely the two lines move together. An r of ±1.0 = perfect correlation. An r of 0 = no relationship. And none of it is causal — it's just what happens when seasonal patterns line up.
U.S. drowning deaths predict how late your flight will be
More drownings = longer delays. The waves repeat every year.
Google searches for "sunscreen" predict flight delays
The more people Google sunscreen, the longer your delay.
Watermelon supply predicts flight delay severity
Peak watermelon = peak delay minutes. Year after year.
Lemonade search interest tracks delay minutes
Big Lemonade is coming for your travel plans.
Your electricity bill predicts how late your flight will be
Higher electric bills, longer delays. The grid knows.
U.S. beer production rises as on-time performance drops
Breweries ramp up. Flights fall apart. Coincidence?
National Park visits mirror flight delay severity
When America goes to the parks, delays get longer.
Flu season predicts flight cancellations
Peak flu = peak cancellations. Sick passengers or sick coincidence?
U.S. ice cream production correlates with flight delays
When America makes more ice cream, delays get longer.
Pumpkin spice searches vs. on-time arrivals
PSL season arrives, and so do the planes. Kind of.
Heating degree days correlate with flight cancellations
The colder it gets, the more flights get cancelled. At least this one makes sense.
Shark attacks vs. flight delays
You'd think this would work. It really doesn't.
So what's actually going on?
All of these correlations are driven by the same hidden variable: seasonality. Flight delays peak in summer because of thunderstorms, heat-related ground stops, and higher passenger volume. Ice cream, shark attacks, sunscreen purchases, and pool drownings also peak in summer.
This is why “correlation does not imply causation” exists as a phrase. Two things can move in perfect lockstep without one causing the other. The next time you see a scary-looking chart with a trend line, ask: is there a lurking variable?
Inspired by Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations. Flight data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Everything else is illustrative — seasonal patterns are real, exact values are approximate.