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Flight Check

How Did U.S. Flights Do Under Every DHS Secretary?

We pulled 121M+ BTS flight records across 50 airports and 6 DHS Secretaries to find out. Here's what the data says.

78.3%

avg on-time rate

137,360

flights cancelled

70.7m

avg delay when late

2014-012026-02 · 50 airports · Bureau of Transportation Statistics

By the numbers

  • Tenure on-time rate: 76.8% (lowest of 6 DHS secretaries excl. COVID)
  • 137,360 flights cancelled across 50 airports
  • Cancellation rate: 1.99% (highest non-COVID tenure)
  • Average delay when late: 70.7 minutes
  • Tenure: Jan 2025 – Mar 2026 (13 months)
  • Data source: BTS Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance

The big picture: 12 years of U.S. flight performance

Monthly on-time rate across 50 major airports, colored by DHS Secretary. Dashed line = pre-Noem average (excl. COVID).

Jeh Johnson
John Kelly
Kirstjen Nielsen
Chad Wolf
Alejandro Mayorkas
Kristi Noem
Pre-Noem avg

The red bars on the far right are Noem's tenure.

Secretary-by-secretary comparison

Average on-time rate by DHS Secretary tenure. Chad Wolf's COVID-era numbers are inflated by reduced flight volume.

Chad Wolf

14 mo · 9.2M flights

91.1%

Kirstjen Nielsen

16 mo · 14.9M flights

81.8%

Jeh Johnson

36 mo · 28.0M flights

81.6%

John Kelly

6 mo · 4.6M flights

80.8%

Alejandro Mayorkas

47 mo · 41.1M flights

80.7%

Kristi Noem

14 mo · 11.8M flights

78.3%
SecretaryMonthsOn-timeCancelFlights
Chad Wolf
1491.1%5.27%9.2M
Kirstjen Nielsen
1681.8%1.65%14.9M
Jeh Johnson
3681.6%1.50%28.0M
John Kelly
680.8%1.36%4.6M
Alejandro Mayorkas
4780.7%1.85%41.1M
Kristi Noem
1478.3%1.50%11.8M

Noem's tenure month by month

Tenure average: 78.3%. Dashed line = prior secretaries' average.

Noem tenure
Prior secretaries avg (81.3%)

Timeline

Key events during Noem's tenure alongside on-time rate data.

Jan 25, '25Noem confirmed as DHS Secretary. Senate vote: 59–34.81% on-time
Feb '25243 TSA employees fired — probationary workers terminated.
Mar '25Collective bargaining revoked for 45,000 TSA workers.80.8%
Jun–Aug '25Summer travel: on-time drops to 76% range. Lower than prior summers.76.0–76.6%
Oct '25Government shutdown begins. 61,000 TSA officers work without pay. Houston IAH: 9 lanes → 2.81.3% → 81.0%
Nov '251,100 TSA officers resign during shutdown — childcare, gas, rent.
Dec '25Holiday travel aftermath. On-time rate hits 74.3% — lowest month.74.3%
Jan–Feb '26On-time rate holds at 73.9% for two straight months. Second partial shutdown begins Feb 14.73.9%
Mar 5, '26Trump fires Noem via Truth Social after two days of hearings.

Sources: BTS, NPR, Federal News Network, ProPublica, TSA.gov

137,360 flights cancelled

Red bars = months above the prior-secretary average of ~14K/month.

Below avg
Above avg
Prior avg (14.1K/mo)

When flights were late, how late were they?

Average delay for late arrivals. Prior-secretary avg: 63.4 min.

Below avg
Above avg
Prior avg (63.4 min)

Why were flights delayed?

Top delay cause by airport-month. Noem era vs. pre-Noem average (excl. COVID).

Late aircraft-9.2pp
Noem
64.1%
Pre-Noem
73.3%
Airline operations-2.5pp
Noem
20.7%
Pre-Noem
23.2%
Weather+8.6pp
Noem
8.6%
Pre-Noem
0.0%
Air traffic / NAS+3.1pp
Noem
6.6%
Pre-Noem
3.4%

Full source data

Every number in this report comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Monthly data across 50 major U.S. airports.

MonthFlightsOn-TimeCancel %CancelledAvg Delay
Jan '25848,58182.8%3%25,46668.7 min
Feb '25792,73980.9%1.27%10,03669.4 min
Mar '25941,59481.7%0.98%9,19671.5 min
Apr '25917,79681.8%0.71%6,54867.8 min
May '25949,72577.5%0.97%9,24970.8 min
Jun '25950,26073.2%1.53%14,50375.5 min
Jul '25978,76872.2%2.52%24,63680.6 min
Aug '25935,31778.9%0.94%8,82271.4 min
Sep '25881,21684.3%0.47%4,11766.3 min
Oct '25949,30980.4%0.54%5,09964.1 min
Nov '25894,80780.3%2.2%19,68871.8 min
Total / Avg10,040,11279.5%1.38%137,36070.7 min

Methodology

All flight performance data comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) 121M+ flights across 50 major U.S. airports, 2014-012026-02. “On-time” = arrived within 15 minutes of schedule (FAA standard).

Secretary comparisons use equal-weight monthly averages to avoid seasonal bias. COVID months (March 2020 – June 2021) are excluded from baseline calculations.

Correlation ≠ causation. Flight delays are driven by weather, airline ops, ATC staffing, and seasonal demand. The DHS Secretary does not directly control airline on-time performance. This report presents data by tenure for comparison, not causation.

Sources: BTS · BTS Air Travel Consumer Reports (2014–2025) · ProPublica · Federal News Network · Fortune · TSA.gov · NPR