Airline Promise Tracker

“We have no intention, no plans to file for bankruptcy. We are not engaged with any restructuring company. JetBlue's bonds at distressed levels reflect a 'significant disconnect.'”

JetBlue has maintained it will not pursue bankruptcy restructuring despite bonds trading at distressed levels. The airline continues to execute its JetForward turnaround plan. Markets remain skeptical but no filing has occurred.

“There will never be less than two pilots in a Delta cockpit as long as I'm here.”

Delta continues to operate with a minimum of two pilots in every cockpit. No changes to this policy have been announced or implemented.

“Frontier is committed to becoming the No. 1 low-cost carrier in the United States and will fill any gaps left by Spirit's exit.”

Frontier has expanded into former Spirit routes and markets. With Spirit's May 2026 shutdown, Frontier is the last major ULCC. However, Frontier's push into premium products (first class, lounges) is blurring its positioning as a pure low-cost carrier.

“Frontier will be the 'last man standing' in the ultra-low-cost carrier space. The ULCC model is alive and well.”

With Spirit ceasing operations in May 2026, Frontier is effectively the last major ULCC in the U.S. market. Biffle's prediction proved directionally correct. However, Frontier has also been pivoting away from pure ULCC with the introduction of first-class seats and premium products, blurring the definition.

“Frontier will introduce first-class seats in 2025 as part of 'The New Frontier' initiative — a promise to deliver exceptional value with unbeatable flexibility.”

Frontier announced first-class seats for 2025 delivery aircraft. The airline has been taking deliveries of new Airbus A321neo aircraft configured with a first-class cabin. Rollout is ongoing.

“After emerging from bankruptcy, Spirit reinstated change and cancellation fees of up to $99 on basic fares — despite marketing itself as the airline that eliminated junk fees.”

Spirit reinstated fees it had previously eliminated, contradicting years of marketing about being consumer-friendly on fees. The move alienated the ultra-price-sensitive customers who were Spirit's core market. Within months, Spirit filed for bankruptcy again.

“United will rank #1 or #2 in on-time performance nationally while flying the largest schedule in its history.”

United ranked second in the nation for overall on-time performance in 2025 while flying its largest schedule ever. BTS data shows a 77.65% on-time arrival rate, slightly below Delta but above the industry average of 77.6%.

“Frontier does not use passengers' personal information to determine individualized pricing or fees.”

Senators Blumenthal, Hassan, and Hawley pushed Frontier and Spirit executives on personalized pricing practices. Frontier maintains it does not use personal data for individual price discrimination, but dynamic pricing based on demand patterns continues. No enforcement action has resulted.

“JetBlue will introduce BlueFirst, a domestic first-class product, to compete with legacy carriers for premium travelers.”

BlueFirst was announced in December 2024. Aircraft retrofits with first-class seats are scheduled to begin flying in late 2026/early 2027, with retrofits continuing through 2027. JetBlue unveiled the seat design in November 2026.

“The 'Alaska Accelerate' plan will deliver $1 billion in operating profit from the Hawaiian Airlines merger synergies.”

The merger closed in September 2024. Integration is underway with expanded Hawaii routes and loyalty program alignment. The $1 billion target is a multi-year goal; too early to assess full achievement.

“Delta will deliver 38 new next-generation aircraft in 2024 that are 28% more fuel-efficient than the aircraft they replace.”

Delta confirmed delivery of 38 new next-generation aircraft in 2024 per its 2024 ESG report, meeting the stated target.

“$1.4 billion in employee profit sharing for 2024 — roughly five weeks of pay per employee.”

Delta paid out $1.4 billion in profit sharing in February 2025 for the 2024 performance year, as confirmed in the 2025 ESG report. Approximately five weeks of pay per employee.

“Delta will deliver $65 million in charitable giving in 2024.”

Delta reported nearly $65 million in charitable giving for 2024 in its ESG report, meeting the stated commitment.

“Spirit aims to exit Chapter 11 in early 2025 as a restructured, viable airline.”

Spirit did exit Chapter 11 in March 2025, but filed again in August 2025 (Chapter 22). The airline could not achieve profitability — it had not posted a full-year profit since 2019. Operations ceased entirely on May 2, 2026.

“American will introduce new Flagship Suite business-class seats on Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR aircraft, open a new Flagship Lounge at Philadelphia, and retrofit the entire fleet with high-speed Wi-Fi by end of 2025.”

The Flagship Suite seats have begun arriving on new 787-9 deliveries. The PHL Flagship Lounge is under construction. Wi-Fi retrofit is proceeding but full fleet coverage has not been confirmed complete.

“American will add 40 to 50 new aircraft in 2025 and recover Chicago O'Hare hub to pre-pandemic service levels by reintroducing regional jets.”

American has been taking delivery of new Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A321neo aircraft through 2025. Boeing delivery delays have affected the pace. O'Hare hub service has expanded with regional jet reintroductions.

“Alaska will expand Hawaii service with new nonstop routes from the mainland after the merger, not reduce it.”

Alaska launched new nonstop SFO-Kona and SFO-Lihue routes in 2025 and increased frequency on existing Hawaii routes. Hawaiian Airlines routes were maintained. Total Hawaii capacity from Alaska Air Group increased.

“United will equip every mainline and regional aircraft with free Starlink Wi-Fi by the end of 2025.”

United's first Starlink passenger flight was in May 2025, far behind the original timeline. As of November 2026, about 697 aircraft (46% of fleet, 51% of daily flights) have Starlink. The target has slipped to ~1,000 aircraft by end of 2026, with full fleet completion now expected by end of 2027.

“United will deploy generative AI on united.com to improve customer search and flight status notifications in real time.”

United deployed generative AI on united.com for search functionality and enhanced its flight status notification system with AI-powered real-time updates. The system is live and operational.

“JetBlue's JetForward plan will return the airline to operating profitability by 2027, deliver $1 in EPS and positive free cash flow by 2028.”

JetBlue has introduced BlueFirst domestic first class (announced December 2024, seats arriving 2026-2027), cut unprofitable routes, and reduced costs. However, bond markets remain skeptical — JetBlue's bonds trade at distressed levels. CEO Geraghty has pushed back on restructuring speculation, saying 'We have no intention, no plans to file for bankruptcy.'

“Spirit will emerge from its challenges as a stronger ultra-low-cost carrier with a sustainable business model.”

Spirit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2024, emerged briefly in March 2025, then filed for bankruptcy again in August 2025. The airline ceased all operations permanently on May 2, 2026, after 34 years. A $500 million White House bailout request failed. Total net losses from 2020-2024 were approximately $3.1 billion.

“We are winning back corporate business that moved away during our distribution changes. The team is delivering on our commitments.”

American reported gradual recovery of corporate accounts through late 2024 and into 2025, but analysts estimated the airline never fully recouped the $1.5 billion in lost revenue from the NDC debacle. Corporate share of revenue improved but remained below pre-NDC levels.

“Shifting to assigned and premium seating will unlock significant new revenue and attract customers who previously avoided Southwest.”

Assigned seating launched January 2026. Early data is mixed — Southwest has seen some new premium bookings but also lost loyalty from long-time open-seating advocates. Full revenue impact will take several quarters to evaluate.

“Delta will invest in AI to identify safety trends earlier and reinforce its safety culture.”

Delta's 2025 ESG report confirmed expanded use of AI for safety trend identification. Specific AI tools were deployed in maintenance and operations. However, concrete metrics on outcomes have not been disclosed publicly.

“Delta will make significant additional investments at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, reinforcing MSP as a major hub.”

Delta has continued to expand operations at MSP, its largest hub outside Atlanta. Specific investment figures have not been publicly disclosed but MSP routes and frequencies have increased.

“United will carry the most passengers and operate the most flights in its history in 2024.”

United confirmed it operated the most flights and carried the most customers in its history for full-year 2024.

“We must do more to enhance NDC instead of removing content from GDS. American will restore full fare content and loyalty rewards to all booking channels.”

American reversed its punitive NDC strategy, restored fare content to GDS platforms, resumed AAdvantage points for non-NDC bookings, and began paying commissions on NDC bookings. The reversal was complete by late 2024.

“Every United plane will have a seatback screen. We're investing in customers at every price point.”

United has been installing seatback screens on all new aircraft deliveries and retrofitting existing planes. All new Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A321neo deliveries have seatback screens. Retrofit of the existing narrowbody fleet is ongoing but not complete.

“Ending free checked bags will generate $1.5 billion per year in new ancillary revenue.”

Bag fees launched May 2025 at $35/$45, then increased to $45/$55 in early 2026. Southwest estimated it would also lose $1.8 billion in business from loyal customers who chose Southwest specifically for free bags. Net revenue impact is still being evaluated.

“Alaska Airlines will maintain the Hawaiian Airlines brand, keep all front-line union employees, and protect neighbor island flights after the merger.”

The merger closed September 18, 2024. The Hawaiian Airlines brand continues to operate. Inter-island flights continue. DOT secured legally enforceable commitments to maintain Hawaii service for six years. Alaska expanded Hawaii routes in 2025 with new SFO-Kona and SFO-Lihue nonstop service.

“American's new direct distribution strategy through NDC will benefit customers with the best fares and loyalty rewards available only through preferred channels.”

The NDC strategy was a disaster. American pulled 40% of its lowest fares from traditional booking channels, slashed agency sales staff, and canceled corporate incentive contracts. ASTA called it 'a clear abuse of market power.' The strategy cost American an estimated $1.5 billion in lost revenue in 2024 as corporate clients booked elsewhere. Isom reversed course in May 2024, restoring GDS content and AAdvantage points for non-NDC bookings.

“United will be the most reliable airline in the industry. We aim to finish first in on-time performance at all seven hubs.”

United finished 2024 ranked first in on-time departures at all seven of its U.S. hubs, per BTS data. The airline also achieved its third-best year in on-time arrivals overall.

“United expects full-year 2024 adjusted diluted EPS of $9.00 to $11.00.”

United delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $10.61 for full-year 2024, at the upper end of the guidance range. Pre-tax earnings reached $4.2 billion.

“After the Boeing 737 MAX 9 door plug blowout on Alaska Flight 1282, Minicucci promised a thorough safety review and said Alaska would hold Boeing accountable.”

Alaska grounded its entire 737 MAX 9 fleet immediately and did not resume service until FAA cleared each aircraft. Alaska pursued claims against Boeing for lost revenue and cooperated fully with NTSB investigation. Boeing subsequently faced congressional hearings and criminal investigation.

“Southwest agrees to pay a $140 million fine for the 2022 holiday meltdown — the largest penalty ever imposed on an airline by the DOT — and commits to specific consumer protections going forward.”

Southwest paid the $140 million fine and has not faced comparable DOT enforcement actions since. The airline implemented the required consumer protections.

“After SkyMiles devaluation backlash, Bastian admitted 'we probably went too far' and promised to make modifications to the program changes planned for January 2024.”

Delta did roll back some of the most aggressive SkyMiles changes, including softening Sky Club access restrictions. However, the core spending-based status thresholds remained, and many loyal members still felt the program was significantly devalued compared to the pre-2023 structure.

“Southwest will always be the airline where bags fly free. It's part of our DNA.”

Southwest ended the 'Bags Fly Free' policy on May 28, 2025, introducing $35 for the first checked bag and $45 for the second. Less than a year later, fees increased by $10 each ($45/$55). The airline estimated $1.5 billion/year in new revenue but also projected $1.8 billion in lost business from loyal customers who chose the airline specifically for free bags.

“United Next will transform the fleet with 700+ new narrowbody aircraft with larger overhead bins, seatback screens, Bluetooth audio, and better lighting by 2032.”

United has been taking delivery of Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A321neo aircraft as part of United Next. Boeing production delays have slowed the overall pace, but the program continues. New aircraft feature seatback screens and other promised amenities.

“American Airlines will reduce total debt by $15 billion from peak levels by the end of 2025.”

American hit $13 billion in debt reduction by end of 2024, on pace but not yet at the $15 billion target. The airline continues to prioritize debt paydown in 2025.

“After the 2022 holiday meltdown that cancelled 16,700 flights, Jordan promised a comprehensive three-part plan: improved winter operations, accelerated technology investments, and better crew recovery systems. 'We have work to do.'”

Southwest invested heavily: 100 new trained crew schedulers on standby, GE-built crew reassignment software, upgraded decision support tools. The airline did not experience a comparable meltdown in subsequent holiday seasons (2023, 2024, 2025). Operational performance measurably improved.

“Delta will offer fast, free Wi-Fi on all flights, powered by a partnership with T-Mobile.”

As of mid-2026, Delta has installed free Wi-Fi on its 1,000th aircraft, roughly 75% of the fleet. Domestic coverage is largely complete for SkyMiles members since February 2024. International routes (transatlantic, transpacific) followed through 2025. Full fleet coverage is still being completed.

“Delta claimed to be the world's first carbon-neutral airline in March 2022, after spending hundreds of millions on carbon offsets.”

Delta quietly dropped the 'carbon neutral' claim after the carbon offset industry faced widespread criticism for ineffectiveness. A lawsuit (Berrin v. Delta) challenged the claim as greenwashing. Delta pivoted to 'net-zero by 2050' language, which it later further downgraded to an 'aspiration.'

“JetBlue's $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit Airlines will create a more competitive national low-fare carrier and lower fares for consumers.”

A federal judge blocked the merger in January 2024 on antitrust grounds, ruling it would harm price-sensitive consumers. JetBlue formally abandoned the acquisition on March 4, 2024. Spirit subsequently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2024 and ultimately ceased all operations on May 2, 2026.

“Delta will use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) for 10% of its total jet fuel consumption by 2030.”

In April 2026, Delta removed this specific target from its website entirely. The airline cited slow technology advancement and insufficient SAF supply. New SAF offtake agreements were announced for 2026, but without a firm percentage target.

“Southwest will never assign seats. Open seating is fundamental to who we are and how we board efficiently.”

In July 2024, Southwest announced it would end open seating after 54 years. Internal research showed 80% of current customers and 86% of potential customers preferred assigned seats. Assigned seating launched January 27, 2026. Jordan defended the reversal at the Bernstein conference in May 2025, calling the changes 'things that Southwest has not done, were not part of that model until now.'

“United pledges to be 100% green by reducing greenhouse gas emissions 100% by 2050 without relying on traditional carbon offsets.”

United has invested in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) production and direct air capture. Their SAF usage remains below 1% of total fuel. The 2050 target is decades away. United Ventures has invested in carbon capture startup 1PointFive and SAF company World Energy.

“Delta will commit $1 billion over the next 10 years to become the first carbon-neutral airline globally.”

Delta briefly claimed carbon neutrality in 2022 using carbon offsets, then abandoned the claim. In April 2026, Delta removed its 2030 SAF target from its website and downgraded its 2050 net-zero commitment from a 'goal' to an 'aspiration,' citing slow technology advancement and high SAF costs.

“JetBlue's Customer Bill of Rights guarantees compensation for delays and cancellations, including vouchers for delays over 2 hours and automatic rebooking on the next available flight.”

The Customer Bill of Rights still exists and is referenced in JetBlue's contract of carriage. However, as JetBlue has faced financial pressure, customer complaints about inconsistent application of the policy have increased. The DOT automatic refund rule (effective 2024) now supersedes portions of the Bill of Rights for delays over 3 hours.